Risk of hot summer in UK is more than twice normal figure, forecasters warn

Temperatures have soared above 30C for the first time this year – and meteorologists forecast the chance of Britain experiencing a hot summer is now 45% – 2.3 times the normal figure.

The warning leaves the nation braced for a possible repeat of last year’s record-breaking heatwave which triggered wildfires, disrupted rail transport, closed schools, led to thousands of premature deaths and saw temperatures break the 40C record in the UK for the first time.

Whether Britain will again experience a breach of the 40C level remains unclear, however. “There’s no strong indications for it,” said Mark Bevan, a senior Met Office adviser. “On the other hand, we saw it last year, so it’s obviously inherently possible. So never say never.”

Bevan said the coming summer’s weather prospects had been calculated using a number of factors including the El Niño effect, wind patterns and sea surface temperatures: “If the wind comes predominantly from the north, that would cool the weather. If the sea surface temperature is high, that acts a bit like an electric blanket for the…