RealClimate: 2022 updates to model-observation comparisons

Our annual post related to the comparisons between long standing records and climate models.

As frequent readers will know, we maintain a page of comparisons between climate model projections and the relevant observational records, and since they are mostly for the global mean numbers, these get updated once the temperature products get updated for the prior full year. This has now been completed for 2022.

Version updates

We have included the updates to the NOAA NCEI surface temperature record to v5.1 (which is more coherent with GISTEMP v4 and HadCRUT5 than previous versions). The Cowtan and Way effort has been suspended, and so that is no longer being used. The NOAA STAR TMT record is in flux – the v4.1 has not been updated since early last year, and a new v5 is available that does a better job incorporating the data from the most recent instruments. Meanwhile, their v3 is still being maintained, thus we are now including all versions until it’s a little clearer. Also upcoming, Berkeley Earth is about to unveil a new product that utilizes machine learning…