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Asia-Pacific stocks rise despite China’s factory and services activity contracting

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Retail sales in Australia rise 0.6% in September

Australia’s retail sales rose 0.6% in September from August, official data showed, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll and at the same pace reported in the previous monthly period.

Sales of clothing, footwear and personal accessories rose 2%, while cafes, restaurants and takeaway food increased 1.3%.

The nation’s retail volumes are released on Friday, and ANZ Research expects quarterly growth of 0.4%.

“This would represent the slowest growth since Covid but still solid for household spending given the shift from retail to services,” ANZ Research said in a tweet.

— Abigail Ng

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Goldman Sachs expects Fed rates to peak at 5%

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect the Federal Reserve funds rate to peak at 5%, after raising its forecast for the central bank to hike 75 basis points in this week’s upcoming meeting.

Economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a Saturday note that they are adding another 25 basis points to their forecasts — now calling for a 50 bps hike in December, a 25 bps hike in February, and another 25 bps hike in March.

“Inflation is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while, which could make continuing to hike in small increments the path of least resistance,” the note said.

Jihye Lee

Macao’s gaming stocks drop after casino lockdown from dealer Covid case

Hong Kong-listed Macao gaming stocks fell sharply in early trade after a worker at MGM China‘s Cotai casino tested positive for Covid, according to a government notice.

Multiple areas related to the case were placed under lockdown, another notice said, with the measures expected to be lifted between November 3-5.

MGM China shares fell 2.89%, Wynn Macau slipped 2.62%, Galaxy Entertainment shares declined 1.85%. Sands China shares also shed 2.29%. SJM Holdings also fell more than 3%.

Factory activity in China shrank in October, missing expectations

China’s factory activity shrank in October compared with September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index print came in at 49.2, missing expectations for a reading of 50 — the mark that separates monthly growth from contraction.

In September, the PMI reading stood at 50.1.

China’s official non-manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7, compared with a print of 50.6 in September.

— Abigail Ng

Japan industrial production drops for the first time in four months

Japan’s industrial production fell 1.6% in the month of September from August, government data showed falling more than expectations of a 1% drop in a Reuters poll and ending a three-month growth streak.

The drop was led by motor vehicles, chemicals and production machinery, the release said.

A government survey forecasting industrial production figures predicts a decline in October, while seeing an increase in November.

— Jihye Lee

CNBC Pro: These 12 cheap global stocks are expected to rally — and analysts love them

Stocks around the world have sold off this year on recession fears and soaring inflation — and are now looking cheap.

Analysts say there could be buying opportunities in some stocks that they expect to rally.

To find those stocks, CNBC Pro screened for names under the MSCI World index that met a number of criteria.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

Currency check: Japanese yen weakens past 148-levels

Japan’s yen weakened past 148-levels against the U.S. dollar in Asia’s morning trade for the first time since last Wednesday.

The moves come ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting this week, where the central bank is expected to hike rates by 75 basis points, further widening the rate differential between the U.S. and Japan.

The Japanese yen saw some strengthening to 146-levels last week ahead of the Bank of Japan’s monetary decision to hold rates steady, before creeping back toward 148 against the greenback.

It last stood at 148.23 per dollar.

— Abigail Ng

China’s factory activity for October forecast to be unchanged from September

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index for October is set to be about flat from September, according to a Reuters poll.

The reading is forecast to come in at 50, the point that separates growth from contraction. PMI prints compare activity from month to month.

In September, the economy eked out a PMI reading of 50.1.

— Abigail Ng

Traders looking for sign of a slowdown from Fed

Wall Street will be watching the Federal Reserve statement closely this week for signs that the central bank will ease up on its rate hike pace.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders believe there is an 80% chance that the Fed hikes rates by three quarters of a point on Wednesday.

That would bring the central bank’s target range to 3.75% to 4%.

Beyond that, however, the market looks more uncertain. There is just a 44% probability of another hike of that size in December.

— Jesse Pound

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