Reserve Bank Raises Inflation Projection To 6.7% For Current Financial Year

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday upped inflation projection for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent forecast in April.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the upside risk to inflation persists and the recent spike in tomato prices would fuel food inflation. Also, high global crude oil prices would add to the upside pressure on inflation.

The upward revision in inflation projection comes as domestic retail inflation has remained above RBI’s comfort level of 6 per cent for four months in a row, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine war which has impacted the prices of commodities across the globe.

In the bi-monthly monetary policy, Das upped the inflation projection for the ongoing fiscal to 6.7 per cent.

It projected inflation to be 7.5 in June quarter (Q1) and 7.4 per cent in September quarter (Q2).

Inflation is expected to come down to 6.2 per cent in December quarter (Q3) and further reduce to 5.8 per cent in March quarter (Q4) of this fiscal.

Das said normal south-west monsoon would boost kharif sowing and agri output.  However, global geo-political situation remains fluid and commodity market remains on the edge.

RBI, in its monetary policy in April, had projected inflation to be 5.7 per cent in the current fiscal, with 6.3 per cent in Q1; 5.8 per cent in Q2; 5.4 per cent in Q3 and 5.1 per cent in Q4.

A rise in price across all items from fuel to vegetables and cooking oil pushed WPI or Wholesale Price Inflation to a record high of 15.08 per cent in April and retail inflation to a near eight-year high of 7.79 per cent.

RBI has the mandate to keep inflation at 4 per cent with a bias of 2 per cent on either side.